The economic activity suffered a hard setback in November: it fell 7.5% with respect to the same month of the previous year and 2.3% in relation to October. In this way, it accumulates a decrease of 2.2% in the first eleven months of the year, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census, when publishing the data of the monthly economic activity estimator. This is the largest year-on-year monthly fall since the beginning of Mauricio Macri’s management and since June 2009 (-8%).
At the sectoral level, the branches of activity that had the greatest impact on the contraction were “wholesale, retail and repairs”, which fell by 17%; manufacturing industry (12.6%) and construction that plummeted 11%. These three sectors that concentrated the most important falls, subtracted about 6 points of growth.
On the other hand, transport-communications and fishing were ranked among the activities with the highest drop, with 4.9% and 5.5% respectively. The situation of the financial sector also worsened, with a year-on-year decrease of 7%.
In contrast, the sectors of “agriculture, livestock, hunting and forestry,” “teaching” and “social and health services” were those that had a greater positive impact.
The EMAE data became known after yesterday, from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Finance Minister Nicolás Dujovne declared that the country’s economic activity had fallen around 2% throughout the year. A few hours later, at the Central Bank, the vice-president of the entity, Gustavo Cañonero, said that the GDP would fall 2.4% in 2018.
According to the economist of LCG, Melisa Sala, “the economy operates at levels similar to those of 2010 and 2% below the 2016 floor, the previous recession of Cambiemos,” he said in his latest report.
Anyway, according to his analysis, “the economy can recover this year,” he warns. “But it will be a marginal recovery that will be more felt in the second half of the year, we understand that it will depend fundamentally on the recovery of exports, which, in any case, would be the only component of aggregate demand that pulls growth”, he explained. .
“For now we continue to maintain a zero average growth for 2019, but we do not rule out that, given the share of uncertainty that adds an uncertain juncture to the typical vulnerability of the local economy and the political scenario in an election year, our baseline scenario should be revised to the bottom “.
The Center of Economic Studies of Orlando Ferreres & Asociados, had calculated, more than a month ago, that the fall of the economic activity of November, had been of 7.4%. And yesterday, he reported his estimate for December. According to this indicator, (IGA-OJF), in the last month of 2018, the general level of activity would have registered a fall of 6.4% per year, ending the year with a cumulative negative variation of 2.1%. According to the indicator of this consultancy, “the seasonally adjusted measurement observed a monthly decrease in the activity of 0.1%”.
About the perspectives on the recovery of the activity, the consultant of Ferreres noticed: “Thinking in the immediate thing, although this period of relative macroeconomic stability is something positive, it will be necessary to wait until the second quarter of 2019 to see the signs of a more concrete recovery “.